Viral Sheth
Financial Market and Asset Management Specialist
In a market buzzing with uncertainty, history often provides the best teacher. With over ₹1.5 lakh crore sold by FIIs in just 45 days, the Nifty has experienced an 11% correction from 26,300 to 23,500. But is this a crash or just a temporary dip when you compare severe declines in 1992, 2008, or 2018?
Insights from Past
2022 Correction (18% fall, lasting 8 months)
After the post-COVID rally, the market peaked at 18,600 in October 2021, corrected 12% to
16,379, briefly rebounded, and eventually bottomed at 15,200 by June 2022.
2015 Correction (24% fall, spanning 11 months)
The Nifty fell from 9,100 in March 2015 to 6,500 by February 2016 after an initial 9.5% decline
and a short-lived rebound.
Current Market Outlook
The rally from 16,900 in March 2023 peaked at 26,300 in September, followed by an 11% drop. Key technical indicators, such as an RSI of 30 and proximity to the 200-day moving average, suggest the market is oversold. A rebound to 24,900–25,100 is likely, but we foresee a subsequent decline to 21,500–20,000 (18–24%) within 6–8 months.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes written on 14th Nov 2024 only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Readers are advised to consult with financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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