Smita Shetty
A renewed Trump presidency could reshape global trade, challenging Indian consumer goods exporters. By the end of his first tenure, tariffs on Chinese goods soared from 3.1% to 19%, and despite calls for relief, the Biden administration largely maintained them. A 2024 World Bank report warns similar tariffs could affect 15% of cross-border shipments if 2018–2021 policies return (Source: Global Trade Monitor). Even if targeting China, they indirectly hit Indian supply chains, raising input costs and shifting competitiveness.
The ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt Eastern European shipping lanes, causing 12–15% longer transit times (Source: DHL Global Connectedness Report, 2023). The conflict’s trajectory is uncertain, with potential for escalation or diplomatic resolution. For Indian exporters, rerouting and higher logistics costs are key concerns
Insurance underwriters already factor Middle East tensions into freight costs, reflecting possible disruptions from Houthi activity in the Red Sea or threats near the Strait of Hormuz. However, surcharges and transit times could climb if conflicts intensify.
During his 2017–2021 presidency, Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA and renewed sanctions on Iran heightened regional strain (Source: U.S. State Department Archive, 2021), while the Abraham Accords advanced ties between Israel and select Arab states (Source: White House Archives, 2020). These developments shaped the region’s political landscape; however, how they evolve remains uncertain, demanding vigilance and adaptive risk management from Indian businesses
To navigate these complexities, Indian businesses should consider five key measures for building resilience.
Diversify Sourcing & Markets: Avoid overreliance on any single region by establishing multiple supplier relationships.
Map Vendor Networks and Mitigate Upstream Risks: Go beyond first-tier suppliers by assessing your suppliers’ own subcontractors. A multi-tier risk assessment approach helps organizations anticipate disruptions before they escalate.
Invest in Technology: Real-time cargo tracking and advanced analytics can reduce lead times by up to 20%.
Build Contingency Buffers: Maintain strategic stockpiles and partner with third-party logistics providers to mitigate sudden shocks.
Stay Compliant and Adaptable: With possible new U.S. regulations on origin rules or labeling, frequent audits and agile compliance frameworks remain critical (Source: U.S. Congressional Research Service, “Trade Policy Primer,” 2024)
Ultimately, resilience will be the defining factor as the global trade landscape continues to shift.
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